Where the Jobs Are…NOT

“Green collar” jobs, infrastructure investments, financial bailouts…just exactly where will the new jobs come from?  In the Washington region – where the federal government accounts for almost a third of our total economy - we benefit when when Treasury struggles to fill jobs to support the $700B rescue package,  we benefit when the  FDIC hires 1400 new bank examiners,  and when the State Department adds 1,500 positions, and when the FBI starts its Hiring Blitz.  This is why Dr. Fuller reported at the GMU Economic Conference that our local economy still has a “worker shortage” and is still ”importing” people from other areas to fill our jobs.  I’ve been calling it The Great Talent Migration, and it appears it will only increase in 2009 as massive government spending offsets job declines in other areas like construction.  in 2009, DC is projected to gain high paying jobs, not lose them.

Our search practice is thriving.  Maybe it’s because we get better results for far less money than traditional firms, but mostly it’s because hiring is still a challenge for most organizations.  Across the region we have small firms who are expanding, association clients filling key roles in education, certification, and member services.   We’re filling jobs in marketing, nonprofit development, finance and accounting, IT, and HR.   And more and more of our best candidates are coming from outside the region.

So is the “green revolution” overblown?  Well, it depends what you call a green job.   According to a recent analysis done for the DC Office of Planning, the so called “green collar” jobs are often just the same construction workers who were being laid off  in the downturn.  But I think their survey placed too much emphasis on just the green building movement, and not other green jobs. Commenting on the study findings, GMU economist Stephen Fuller observed that the green jobs thing is “substantially oversold.”   

Washington Has Confidence in the Economy

The Greater Washington Board of Trade just released a survey of  consumer confidence.  They did the survey in early December, a week after the recession was officially declared.   Many analysts believe consumer confidence is one of the most important economic predictors.  The result?

Consumers in the Greater Washington region are nearly five times more positive about our regional economy than they are about the national economy. 

• 77% of workers expect to keep their current job during the next six months.
• 14% of workers expect a promotion in the next six months.
• Only 3% of workers expect to lose their job in the next six months.
• 83% of self employed people expect their income to stay the same or go up in the next six months.

That’s some real confidence, and with good reason.  Our regional economy is one of the strongest in the country, and people are moving here to take advantage of it. 

If you want to stop worrying and get the facts, join me on January 13th at the GMU 17th Annual Economic Conference.  I already paid my fifty bucks to hear Stephen Fuller, Steven Pearlstein, John McClain and Alex Orfinger tell me  when this recession will be over.

Just let me know if you are coming, so we can sit together at the optimists table ok?

Thankfully, This is Not 1929…or 1982

These are uneasy times, but far from catastrophic.  Newsweek provides some valuable perspective on this.  In a recent article, they outline a few key points to keep in mind:

• Many economists expect this recession to end sometime in the summer of 2009, not go on for 43 months like the Great Depression. 
• National unemployment in this recession is likely to peak at about 7.6 percent, not even remotely close to the 25% of the Great Depression, and nowhere near the 11% from 1982.  

Unemployment in the DC suburbs is currently running about 3.5% right now (about 7% in DC, and just over 4% overall).  At the Annual President’s Forum of Metro-Washington, the keynote speaker, GMU economist Stephen Fuller, told me he expects unemployment in this region could still rise about another one percent – remaining the best job market in the country - and well within the range that most economists call “full employment.”   

DC Reaches a Tipping Point – The Great Talent Migration Has Started

An astonishing shift has occurred in the DC metropolitan area job market just in the past few months.  We are now importing the brightest and best candidates from weaker job markets in record numbers.   The combination of lower real estate prices, a strong job market, and a tidal wave of planned federal spending makes our region a powerfully attractive place to live and work.

How do I know this?  Well if you’ve been reading this blog or my newsletter you already know all we enjoy one of the strongest job markets of any metropolitan area.  What caught me by surprise was how many of our recent searches were filled by candidates from New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and the west coast.  In our last 12 searches, fully a third of the finalists came from out of area.  This is a tenfold increase in just a few months, and the numbers are rising. 

Stephen Fuller: It’s Nice to Have a Rich Uncle

Unemployment here in Washington is lower than anywhere else in the country, home sales increased over last year, and the local economy is adding jobs. We can all thank Uncle Sam for these blessings.

To compensate for job losses in retail, construction and financial services, our region is adding new professional jobs in business, education, health, utilities and information services. From tighter banking regulations, to the $700 billion bailout, to an increased role for the FDIC – it’s all good news for our local economy because it brings more high paying jobs to Washington. Regional economic guru Stephen Fuller astutely observes that “although the unemployment numbers have gone up slightly, the picture is not as bad as the numbers might indicate, because the jobs we’re adding pay more than the jobs we’re losing.”

Read the comforting article here…

Best Places to Ride out the Recession

BusinessWeek.com has just named the best cities to ride out the economic storm, and Washington did very well. The analysis was performed by city, not metropolitan area, so Arlington was number 1, Washington DC number 2, and Baltimore number 7.