Where the Jobs Are . . .and Other Fallacies

I’m looking forward to an onslaught of news articles about how the stimulus package will create jobs in different industries.  And I will dutifully devour that material and breathlessly report back to you on how it will affect the DC region.  And I will be wrong in ways I cannot even imagine.  As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”   (He’s a national treasure, that guy).

So Yogi’s comment is my first disclaimer as I share with you a snazzy state by state interactive map of economic forecasts, but before you have fun with the interactive forecasts, let’s first review the forecasts made LAST year by BusinessWeek’s impressive panel of notable economists.  In December of 2007:

“The economy won’t sink into a recession next year. That’s the overwhelming view among the 54 economists in BusinessWeek’s annual economic outlook survey.”

OK, so 14 months ago, literally 2 of 54 economists actually predicted this recession we are in.   And these are the guys who are telling us how long it will last?

If you still believe in economic forecasts, just slog through Black Swan, and your misplaced trust in economic forecasts will be forever put to rest.  

This is not to say I am pessimistic, far from it.  I just have no confidence that anyone can accurately forecast the future. So we all need to be ready for an unpredictable future, which very few firms are doing.  Being ready does not just mean cutting costs, it means challenging old ways of thinking and reallocating resources to support your future growth.  It means asking new questions about the business.  “Where are our strongest growth prospects?  Do we have the right team in place to capitalize on those opportunities?  What costs can we eliminate if we try a different approach?  Who is effectively driving results for me right now, and who is just lost in the turbulence?”  (Are you a CEO?  Click here.  Are you a recruiter? Click here) 

I believe in the ingenuity of the mid-tier organizations.  (See my recent post on  How are you innovating your way out of the recession?)  And Steve Pearlstein made a compelling case for the relative strength of mid-tier firms being able to thrive in the recession:

“… the good ones are better able to attract employees who have the creativity and initiative key to success in service industries. Those kinds of employees attach high value to autonomy and independence and don’t work particularly well in organizations where regimentation is built into the corporate DNA. And because the focus at these companies isn’t driving growth by driving down costs, they are able to offer more attractive compensation packages, particularly in the area of incentive pay.”